Nate Silver: Democrats Have 5 In 6 Chance Of Taking The House

Super-stats guy Nate Silver currently shows the Democrats have a 5 in 6 chance of taking control of the House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections.

According to his stats right now, his prediction is for an average gain of 38 seats in the House by Dems.

Conversely, Silver predicts the Republicans have a 5 in 6 chance of keeping control of the Senate.

Click over to Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com for updated info as we head into the midterms.

Monday Monday: Nate Silver's Current Presidential Prediction

While Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website constantly updates as new polling info is released, here's where things stand on this bright, sunny Monday morning.

During a campaign stop on Monday, Republican Donald Trump accused Democrats of creating fake polls in an effort to suppress turnout on behalf of Trump.

Donald Trump accused Democrats on Monday of manufacturing fake polls that show him trailing in the presidential election in order to discourage the GOP nominee’s supporters from voting on Election Day. “Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the [sic] Trump,” the Manhattan billionaire wrote on Twitter Monday morning. “We are going to WIN!”

Trump did not specify which polls he believed to be fake, nor did he offer any further clarity on which Democrats or Democratic institutions were concocting the “phony” polls. Widely respected and accepted polls have shown Trump trailing badly in recent days, including some that put Democrat Hillary Clinton up by double-digits.

News Round-Up: October 22, 2016

Some news stories you may have missed:

• This Is Us star (formerly of Smallville) Justin Hartley gets wet and wild for a good cause on ELLEN.

• Log Cabin Republicans vote to withhold endorsing Donald Trump for president. What a bold decision two weeks before the election.

• Utah activists sue the state over laws which ban any positive discussion of LGBTs in public schools.

• Donald Trump says he plans to sue all the women who have accused him of sexual assault after the election.

• In case you're wondering, here's Nate Silver's latest numbers crunching of the presidential election.

Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton Has 84% Chance Of Winning Presidency

Of course, the election is constantly fluid. But super-stats guy Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website posts that, as of this hour, Democrat Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the race to the White House.

Nate Silver: Clinton In "Considerably Better Position" After First Presidential Debate

As new, quality state polls roll in after the first presidential debate, super-stats guy Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight says Hillary Clinton is in a "considerably better position."

Nate Silver's Latest Projection For Presidential Race

With several new polls coming out this week with strong support for Hillary Clinton, it's no wonder super-stats guy Nate Silver's forecast is looking very positive for the former Secretary of State.

Click on the images to enlarge.

Nate Silver's Latest Forecast: Hillary Clinton Has 78% Chance Of Winning

Our latest polls-only forecast gives Clinton a 78% chance of winning the presidency: https://t.co/J13KEflDKg pic.twitter.com/zO5rm2l6x9

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 10, 2016

Super-Stats Guy Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton Has 80% Chance Of Winning Presidency

Super statistician Nate Silver, who predicted 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential race and 50 out of 50 in 2012, has launched his 2016 Election Forecast page.

The page takes into account all the recent polls in an effort to track where the race for the White House is on any given day. There are three models that crunch the numbers - Polls Only, Polls Plus (which takes into account all polls plus economic conditions and historical data), and Now-Cast (which discerns what the outcome would be if the election were held today).

You can bookmark this and check every now and then to get, in my opinion, one of the best indications of the state of the presidential race.

Super-Statistician Nate Silver Predicts Crushing Win By Hillary Clinton

Super-stats guy Nate Silver tweeted out this prediction of the general election (if the voting were held today) predicting a crushing defeat for Donald Trump.

You need 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

Nate Silver predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.

In 2012, Silver predicted all 50 states in the presidential election.

I'm not nearly the genius Silver is but I'm not so bullish on Georgia and North Carolina.

That being said, Hillary would still win big even without those two states. I do think she will win handily.

We shall see how this all plays out...

Stats Genius Nate Silver Offers Advance General Election Forecast

Here's what the map might look like in an election held today. Trump's Rust Belt strength would help him keep MO, IN pic.twitter.com/OYueYvWFpG

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 24, 2016

Georgia's 16 electoral votes would be my one quibble - the rest is possible.

I'm not hating this.

Nate Silver: GOP Has 68.5% Chance Of Taking US Senate

Wonder statistician Nate Silver says Republican chances of taking over the Senate are now 68.5% - the highest they've been all year.

Silver's predictions on the top ten US Senate races:

1. Montana (99.8 percent chance of a GOP win)

2. South Dakota (99 percent)

3. West Virginia (98 percent)

4. Arkansas (90 percent chance)

5. Louisiana (77 percent chance)

6. Colorado (75 percent chance)

7. Iowa (67 percent chance)

8. Alaska (67 percent chance)

9. North Carolina (32 percent chance)

10. New Hampshire (17 percent chance)

Tweet of the Day: Nate Silver

Why Nate Silver got drunk

Due to his incredibly accurate forecast of the 2012 election, "Drunk Nate Silver" has become a Twitter phenomenon. Dan Levitan's tweet set off the meme riot: "Drunk Nate Silver is riding the subway, telling strangers the day they will die"

Second City created this hilarious video riffing on Nate's "gift" to see into the future.

Nate Silver's grand slam home run

For months, Randy Report readers have watched me post the NY Times' Nate Silver's forecast for the election. Now I can show you why he's the numbers guy to follow.

Here is Nate Silver's final forecast prediction of the election:

And here's how it all actually played out. Pretty amazing.

Give the guy a pat on the back. Nate knows his stuff. Remember you can find him on the NY Times website.

Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight, bets $1,000 President Obama will be re-elected

New York Times statistician Nate Silver is so confident in President Obama's electoral victory that he's betting former GOP Congressman and current MSNBC host Joe Scarborough $1,000 that the commander-in-chief will have a second term.

The above tweet comes after Silver found press and pundits wondering whether he would be a "one-term celebrity" if Obama loses. Silver's career took off dramatically after he used his skills, once reserved for sports games to correctly call the 2008 election, save for one state.

Here's the stats from Nate Silver's New York Times blog - FiveThirtyEight - for today, showing President Obama surging in polls released yesterday.

Nate Silver sees numbers trending back up for President Obama

Nate Silver, of the FiveThirtyEight blog for the NY Times, sees numbers slowly trending in President Obama's direction. The President has crept back up to a projected 71% chance of re-election.

Nate Silver sees surge for Romney in polls

Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight, sees the Presidential campaign tightening clearly due to the first Obama/Romney debate.

But while we're seeing tightening, Nate still sees the President at a 75% chance of winning. Should the Obama campaign stop the bleeding from the first debate, beginning with VP Joe Biden giving a strong performance at the VP debate this Thursday, things could definitely settle.

Everyone knew this would be a tight race. It's basically where it was months ago.

What will matter will be swing states, like Ohio.

President Obama leads in Ohio 51%-47% according to a poll released Tuesday by CNN.

Watch Ohio.

Nate Silver Update - September 28, 2012

From Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog. FiveThirtyEight provides forecasts of upcoming presidential, Congressional and gubernatorial elections through the use of its proprietary prediction models.

Nate Silver correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 election, and all 35 Senate races.

(source)

NY Times: Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight Forecast 9-9-12

Coming out of the two national conventions, Nate Silver of the NY Times/Five Thirty Eight Forecast sees President Obama up 100 electoral points as of September 9, 2012.

Nate Silver - Five Thirty Eight Forecast - Sept 7, 2012

Read more from Nate Silver's analysis at NYTimes.com