Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Quinnipiac Poll Shows Tight Presidential Race In Three Swing States

Democrats had their world rocked a bit this morning as the latest Quinnipiac University poll showed tight races between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and brash businessman Donald Trump in three all-important swing states - Pennsylvania, Ohio and Floridia.

Via Politico:

Buckle up for the next six months: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are effectively tied in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday. Split along lines of gender, race and age, the presumptive Republican nominee and the likely Democratic nominee appear poised for tight battles in those states, though Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders performs better against Trump than Clinton does and is also seen more favorably by voters in all three states. No presidential candidate has won an election since 1960 without winning at least two of the three states.

At roughly the same point in 2012, President Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by single digits in Ohio and in Pennsylvania, while Romney led by 1 percentage point in Florida. (Obama ended up winning all three, all by single digits.) Four years earlier, eventual Democratic nominee Obama trailed Arizona Sen. John McCain by 1 point each in Florida and Ohio, but led by 9 points in Pennsylvania. (Obama also won all three states in November, winning Florida and Ohio by single digits and Pennsylvania by 10 points.)

Real Clear Politics poll averages puts Clinton ahead of Trump by +4.3 in Florida, +3 in Ohio, and +7 in Pennsylvania.

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