Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Nate Silver's 538 Website Predicts Wins For Cruz And Clinton In Iowa

Nate Silver, famous for successfully projecting the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the 2012 presidential election, predicts that Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton will win their respective caucus's in Iowa.

From Politico:

Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show.

Cruz has a 51 percent chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29 percent chance of winning Feb. 1.

A look at just state polls shows a much closer race between Trump and Cruz, giving the business magnate a better chance of winning by 2 percentage points, 44 percent to Cruz’s 42 percent.

All around, Hillary Clinton is believed to have an all-but-certain victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa.

The polls-plus forecast gives Clinton an 82 percent chance of winning, while Sanders comes in at 18 percent. That margin narrows dramatically with a look at just Iowa polls, with Clinton leading Sanders 66 percent to 34 percent.

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