Thursday, March 31, 2016

Why Bernie Sanders Winning Wisconsin Is Not Like Winning New York

This isn't an "anti-Bernie Sanders" post. It's a post about math and delegates.

With Bernie Sanders leading in Wisconsin and Hillary Clinton looking to lead by 12 points in New York, the WaPo explores why a win for Bernie and a win for Hillary don't serve up the same results.

From the Washington Post:

These states are not equivalent. This is not a tie, with Clinton winning one state and Sanders winning another. It is, instead, a clear demonstration of why Bernie Sanders almost certainly won't be the Democratic nominee.

After all, it comes down to delegates. Wisconsin has 86 delegates; New York has 247. Since the party distributes its delegates proportionally, that means that Sanders's slight Wisconsin lead would earn him a slightly bigger portion of the state's small delegate haul. Clinton's larger New York lead would earn her a larger portion of the state's large delegate haul.

There are still a lot of states after New York for Sanders to make progress. Many of the delegates remaining though -- more than half -- are tied up in three large states: Pennsylvania, New Jersey and California. As we noted earlier this month, Clinton is leading in the most recent polling in those three states, too.

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