Wall Street Pundits Worry About Impending Recession As Economy Slows

Donald Trump

Wall Street experts say increased stock market volatility may be signs of an impending recession as Donald Trump's trade war with China continues to heat up.

From Politico:

Over just the last few days, economists at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all warned that Trump’s bitter trade war with China is taking a bigger bite out of economic growth than expected.

The warnings came as stocks suffered another big dip on Monday with the Dow closing off nearly 400 points, or 1.5 percent, putting the blue-chip index at 25,897, over 700 points lower than it was in January of 2018 before Trump’s trade fights began in earnest. Stocks bounced back Tuesday after the Trump administration’s announcement about postponing some tariffs that had been set to take effect next month, continuing a long track record of market volatility tied to trade policy.

The collective wisdom now spreading across Wall Street is that no trade deal will be struck with China before the 2020 election; business investment will continue to sag; and a series of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve won’t be enough to juice more growth out of an economy now in its tenth year of expansion — the longest stretch in American history.

With economic growth slowing to 2.1 percent in the second quarter, Trump is predictably shifting from crowing about the stock market to blaming the Federal Reserve for not utilizing more interest rate cuts.

Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics Michelle Meyer said in a note to clients that she believes there is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

Stock Market Suffers Deep Decline Over Trump Trade Wars, Tech Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average for the week

Wall Street took a dive Tuesday turning negative for the year.

Target led the way after reporting weaker than expected earnings for the previous quarter

From CNBC:

The 30-Stock Dow fell 450 points after dropping nearly 400 points in the previous session. Earlier in the day, the Dow was down nearly 600 points. The S&P 500 dropped 1.3 percent, but also traded well off its session lows. The Dow and S&P 500 were up 1.2 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, for 2018 entering Tuesday.

Target fell 10.4 percent after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings for the previous quarter. The company also posted lighter-than-forecast same-store sales, which is a key metric for retailers.

Tuesday's decline came a day after members of the popular "FAANG" trade —Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet — all closed in a bear market, down more than 20 percent from their 52-week highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.7 percent and 3 percent, respectively, on Monday while the Dow fell 1.6 percent.

Experts point to Donald Trump's trade wars, a slowdown in the global economy and the recent cloud that's hung over Big Tech stocks for the decline.

That said, most say the actual fundamentals of these stocks are solid, but that doesn't seem to matter to investors today.

Stocks are opening sharply lower on Wall Street as a rout in major technology companies continued.

The early drops put major indexes back into the red for the year. https://t.co/hvztlJZrY8 pic.twitter.com/2muQr838zB

— ABC News (@ABC) November 20, 2018

When Wall Street wipes out a year’s gain, Donald has nothing to brag about it. His recession is starting. https://t.co/oeka7LSklW

— Barbara Malmet (@B52Malmet) November 20, 2018

Dow makes biggest weekly gain since July 2009

The Dow rallied 7%, its biggest weekly gain since July 2009.

The S&P 500 climbed 7.4%, its best weekly performance since March 2009.

The Nasdaq rose 7.6%, delivering its second-best weekly rise this year.

Concerns about Europe's debt crisis still put a damper on the final hours of trading today.

Dow on track for biggest monthly gain in history

From ThinkProgress: Despite conservatives’ claims that the rhetoric used by President Obama and the 99 Percent Movement is hurting the economy, the stock market is on track to have one of its best months in history.

The Dow had added about 1200 points this month by the closing bell yesterday, which would be the biggest point gain in the index’s history.

The S&P 500 also had its biggest point gain in history this month. Measured by percentage, both indices are on track for their best month since 1987.

Yeah - President Obama's policies are clearly bad for business...

Are you paying attention Wall Street?  Seniors - are you seeing your retirement accounts go up?

Thought so.

Stock market finished it's second-best week in a year

(Via the AP) The stock market finished its second-best week in a year Friday as Europe's debt problems appeared to get closer to a resolution.

Stocks ended higher for a fifth straight day, the longest winning streak in 2 1/2 months. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75 points after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner called on European finance ministers at a meeting in Poland to reach a solution on Greece's debt problems.

The Standard & Poor's 500 finished the week with a 5.4 percent gain. It was the biggest increase for the broad market index since the first week of July.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75.91 points, or 0.7 percent, to close at 11,509.09. The Dow jumped 186 points Thursday, its biggest gain of the week, after five central banks said they would act together to support European lenders with unlimited dollar loans.

The S&P index gained 6.90, or 0.6 percent, to 1,216.01. The Nasdaq added 15.24, or 0.6 percent to 2,622.31.