Thursday, February 11, 2016

FiveThirtyEight Looks At The Terrain Going Forward For Clinton, Sanders

The polling/stats geniuses of FiveThirtyEight took a look at what the polls show in terms of upcoming primary challenges in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination.

As the competition moves into more diverse terrain, Sen. Bernie Sanders looks like he will need to up his game in terms of diversity.

From FiveThirtyEight:

Polling has indicated that Sanders trails among nonwhite voters by nearly 40 percentage points nationally. Although no reliable recent polling is available in Nevada, Clinton leads by 30 percentage points in both of our South Carolina forecasts. In the latest Marist College poll, she’s buoyed by a 74 percent to 17 percent lead among black voters. Sanders must cut into that margin if he wants to have any chance in South Carolina or anywhere in the South.

You could already see how Sanders might have problems in Nevada and South Carolina even as he was crushing Clinton in New Hampshire. Despite winning the state by more than 20 percentage points, the best Sanders could manage among registered Democrats was a tie. His large margin came from registered independents who voted in the Democratic primary. You must be a registered Democrat to vote in the Nevada caucuses, though you can register as one the day of the election. In 2008, 81 percent of Nevada caucus-goers self-identified as Democrats. Just 58 percent of New Hampshire voters on Tuesday thought of themselves as Democrats.
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